Simmons keeps swimming

With every new accomplishment by Peyton Manning, Bill Simmons concedes a little bit more while at the same time grasps at a new straw to keep some semblance of dignity for his idiotic remarks over the course of the season. In today's mailbag, the Sports Guy finally admits that "Manning is having one of the greatest regular seasons in the history of the sport" (emphasis his (man, I always wanted to say that)). But then he goes on with a dig-disguised-as-praise that really amounts to a CYA:

And yes, in my book, what Manning did in the last few minutes of that game was infinitely more important than anything else he did all season. Ten years from now, that TD record will hold about as much weight as McGwire's 70 homers. We're entering an era of 70-point over/unders and 500-yard passing days, a decade where no-names like Billy Volek and Drew Bennett can look like Montana and Rice on any given Sunday. But Manning waving the punter off the field on fourth-and-4, then delivering that bee-bee to Wayne for a first down ... now THAT was a moment.

Let's take the second point first (also always wanted to say that!). Are you saying that you're finally willing to concede that Manning is a big-game QB? Because, you know, most people would say that this was a pretty big game. Two teams on serious rolls, vying for the #3 seed for the playoffs, etc.

So let's remember this major, major concession by Simmons: Manning came up big in a really big situation. Particularly when Simmons is celebrating "another choke" by Manning after his team does what it was expected to do: lose on the road in the playoffs.

(Just for the record, I personally didn't consider this a big game. Because it really doesn't matter that much if the Colts get the #3 seed or the #4 seed. One way, they have to win at New England and then at Pittsburgh, and the other way, they have to win at Pittsburgh and at New England. Either way, it's just about impossible. But on the other hand, I'm not the one trying to peddle some "Manning chokes in big games" theory.)

And now to the "new era" point. One reason it's so easy to critique Simmons is that he, like most sports reporters, can consistently be relied upon to not check the numbers. But I did. And the numbers are quite interesting. Since the main beef has to do with Manning's breaking the touchdown passes record, let's look at the total number of touchdown passes in the NFL over each of the last 3 years (in all cases, the 2004 number is projected through Week 17--not a big leap):

2004: 735
2003: 654
2002: 694

That's a pretty significant difference between 2003 and 2004, of course, but the difference between 2002 and 2004 is not nearly as big (about 5.5%). If Manning had merely raised his numbers by 5.5% between last year and this year, Marino's record would still be looking pretty safe.

Not only that, but the overall 2004 numbers are obviously themselves helped by Manning's amazing season. So if we replace Manning's TD numbers by those of the average QB in the league for each year, we get numbers like this:

2004: 704
2003: 645
2002: 688

The difference between 2002 and 2004 is now only about 2.2%. Meanwhile, I will also take this opportunity to point out that Simmons' boy Tom Brady's 26 TD passes this year (through 15 games) is not his career high; that came in 2002 when he threw 28. Funny how Brady can't seem to take advantage of this "new era" like Manning has. Prediction: Manning's TD pass record will last at least 10 years.

Since Simmons also posited a "500-yard games" theory as part of his "new era" (by the way, number of 500-yard passing games in 2004: 0), let's look at the total passing yardage in the NFL for each of the last 3 years, too (2004 is projected through 17 weeks):

2004: 115,474
2003: 109,467
2002: 116,201

Hmm. That sure is interesting, isn't it? Not sure if I need to add much to that.