Fish in a Barrel

Well, the NFL season is two weeks old, and a story has emerged which is so easy to pick apart that I almost feel guilty for doing so. But then again, nobody said my job was hard. They just said it was...oh, never mind.

Anyway, so here it is. I am going to go way out on a limb here and announce that the Colts defense is not as good as everybody thinks it is. Now, that wasn't very hard, was it? Not much of an analysis, eh?

Quick: name me two NFL teams that are known for having a good defense and a lousy offense. Baltimore and Jacksonville, right? Sure, they're good teams, but their offense stinks. So if you play those teams back-to-back, and you happen to beat them, why, it's just the perfect recipe for people getting over-excited about your defense.

"Numbers, SRAM, I need numbers!" Okay, here's your numbers. Baltimore currently sits next-to-last in the league in points per game, while Jacksonville is 24th at 14.5 ppg after their 26-14 track meet with Seattle last week. But that's not much data, obviously, and includes half their games against the Colts themselves. So let's throw in 2004 as well. Last year Jacksonville was 29th in the league with a whooping 16.3 ppg, nearly a point per game less than the mighty Miami Dolphins. Baltimore was 20th with 19.8 ppg, and that was before their star RB spent 4 months cooling his heels on the state government's dime.

Indianapolis has also benefitted from some missed FGs and bungling by opposing offenses. Sure, they lead the league with only 5.0 ppg given up, but what do you suppose their NFL rank is in yards given up per game? "Okay," you say, "it's probably a bit lower, but still maybe, say, 5th or 8th or so, right?"

Wrong. 25th. Twenty fifth in yards given up per game! 352 ypg, to be exact. This is a paltry 18 yards per game fewer than they gave up last year.

Sure, the defense is probably a little better than they were last year. They may even, in fact, actually be a lot better. But the evidence to suggest it is paper-thin, and I for one would suggest a little restraint from the commentators until more proof emerges. I remember a certain team last year that gave up 13 total points through 3 weeks. That team was the Seattle Seahawks, and their defense ended up 22nd in the league, allowing 22.3 ppg.

But get a load of all those writers jumping on the Indy D bandwagon! "There has been a sea change on Planet NFL. The Colts have allowed one garbage-time TD in eight quarters. No one is playing better than the Indy D right now," pronounces Peter King of SI.com. And Eric Allen of ESPN raves,

I'm very excited by what I'm seeing from the Colts defense. They have brought in guys who are hungry and are playing with tenacity. They have young cornerbacks who are flying around and making plays. This team looks like they are playing with an extra guy and we're just seeing the beginning of what they can do. This has the potential to be a very special team if the defense continues to play well.

Of course the most eloquent description of these poetic Colts in motion comes from Len Pasquarelli:

He was bloodied, bowed and beaten by the belligerent Colts' pass rush. If the Colts' first games are any indication, Leftwich likely won't be the last quarterback to be swatted around like a human piñata.

The Indianapolis Colts, a team synonymous with great defense, right? As incongruous as it sounds, people might actually have to get accustomed to it.

My favorite aspect is the bucketloads of analysis that the experts are trotting out explaining to us in precise detail exactly why the Colts defense is so much better now. For example, from the Pasquarelli column:

There is much more to the Indianapolis defense now, too, than a year ago. For one thing, this is Dungy's fourth season here, and the players who have been with him during that time have become considerably more comfortable in the scheme. Dungy and Ron Meeks, the Colts' defensive coordinator, have more of the type of players they need to play a scheme predicated on speed and quickness. And the Colts possess a defensive front that loves to pin its ears back and rush the quarterback on third-and-long.

There you go, folks. The secret to 25th-place performance.

I really wish I could just hear Sean Salisbury's take on it, too. It probably goes something like this: "When I was a quarterback in the National Football League this was exactly the type of defense that I hated facing the most. They're getting in the other team's face and hitting hard and serving notice that this is a new D they're looking at now and just flat-out making plays. Tony Dungy has done a spectacular job in remaking the defense the last 4 years while everyone was watching the offense."

Not surprisingly, the team is starting to believe its own press clippings, too:

"We were fortunate today, the defense could carry the offense for a while," Colts cornerback Nick Harper said. "We showed everyone we're for real."

And even Bill Simmons, who by the way has developed a brilliant, highly complex system for delivering a 50.1% success rate picking against the spread, is getting on board the Indy D-Train early on in a cunning pre-emptive CYA move. From his Week 2 Picks article last Friday:

Was anyone else thoroughly impressed by the Colts on Sunday night? This was the first time during the Manning Era that I thought to myself, "My Go[sh], they might actually win the Super Bowl this season."

Let me translate that for you. It means, according to Bill, that for the first time, the Colts look like they might have a Super Bowl-worthy defense. Hey, welcome to the club, Simmons! So a good defense behind the QB is important, huh? Gee, who'da thunk?

But don't believe the hype just yet.