Eli's no Peyton

I have to admit that even I get a little tired of constantly bashing ESPN. Which is why it's nice when somebody else comes along, even the reputable Wall Street Journal (motto: "We should stick to business and politics"), and writes an idiotic sports article that I can criticize.

Today Allen Barra writes a story for the WSJ arguing that Eli Manning has arrived. While not actually arguing that he is as good as his brother, his main thesis is that "[Eli] has reached the top rung of pro quarterbacks and is on the verge of superstardom." His supporting arguments for this assertion are simply classic examples of selective fact-stating and groundless name-calling.

He starts with the name-calling:

According to the National Football League's Byzantine system for rating quarterbacks, Eli is only the 18th-best passer in the league....

What would journalists do without the word "Byzantine"? A more useful word could hardly be imagined, meaning, as it seems, something that is "bad" according to conveniently unspecified criteria. I suppose in this case he means "overly complex," but that's rather a vague argument, wouldn't you say?

But Barra is not afraid to get into the nitty-gritty! No, not he!

The NFL's passer rating formula gives too much weight to pass-completion percentage, which most analysts now realize is a minor statistic. As football stats guru Bud Goode once asked me, "Would you rather complete two of three passes for nine yards or one of three for 10?"

Gotta love that "most analysts" citation, eh? And then back it up with noted "stats guru" Bud Goode! Thanks for the input, Bud! Okay, Allen, you don't like completion percentage? Then what do you like?

The passing numbers that correlate best with winning in the NFL are yards per attempt and interception percentage; Eli's YPA is slightly under seven, a healthy figure, and his interception percentage is lower than several other passers rated higher by the league.

A "healthy figure"! Bwaa-ha-ha-ha! Do you think that any of those business readers of the WSJ would buy a stock after an analyst had told them that the company's P/E was a "healthy figure"? And I love the way he just tried to slip it past us, too. What he really wanted to convey would have been more like this:

The most important stats are [cough!]ypa[cough!] and INTERCEPTION PERCENTAGE; Eli's ypa is around 7 AND HIS INTERCEPTION PERCENTAGE IS BETTER THAN SOME OTHER PEOPLE'S!!!

As a matter of fact, Eli's yards per attempt is 6.92, which is good for twentieth in the league. That would mean that his ranking in the highly credible statistical category of Yards Per Attempt is lower than his ranking in the dubiously "Byzantine" category of NFL Passing Efficiency. His ranking in interception percentage, by the way, is 15th, hardly cause for celebration.

Barra then goes on to argue that Eli's career is following roughly the same trajectory as Peyton's on the preposterously tenuous evidence that, here in his second season through 11 games, Eli has 20 TD passes and 10 interceptions while Peyton had 20 TDs and 11 INTs. Okay, that's a pretty impressive coincidence, but that's about all you can say for it. Peyton's Colts also finished that year 13-3; what are the odds that Eli's team does that well? Not good.

Barra concludes by saying that the main difference between the Colts and the Giants are that while the former are the least penalized team in the league, the latter are the most penalized. If only the numbskulls surrounding Eli would pull their heads out, he laments, the Giants would have the home-field advantage throughout the playoffs sewn up.

Nowhere does he acknowledge that the quarterback, as the de facto leader of the team, might have some responsibility for improving the discipline and overall smarts of his offense to curtail penalties. Nor does he anywhere in the article mention one Tiki Barber, the #3 running back in the NFL in yards and, oh by the way, the #5 RB in yards per attempt.

Look, Eli's having a good year, and his team has surpassed expectations. You know who else is having a good year, with his team surpassing expectations? Kyle Orton. And he's dead last in passing efficiency. You don't see anybody calling him a superstar, do you?

(Well, okay, not yet. But he's still getting more props than he deserves. Fortunately not from the WSJ.)